Is Gove set to be our next Prime Minister?


GoveI must has spent too long in the sun yesterday, these are the thoughts I came up with after a question from a friend regarding where the Tory Party is trying to take us. The return of Michael Gove to the front bench has been something of a surprise to many people, bearing in mind he and Theresa were not seeing eye to eye back in July. However nine months is a long time in politics. He came third in the leadership contest and if the party wants to avoid the risk of rerunning the whole process again, the two top contenders from the last contest are now in the front bench team. Both able to speak whenever it suits them or the party. The fact that Gove has been given the same Cabinet role as Andrea Leadsom had for the last 9 months means that the party has a direct comparison between the two of them. If he is seen to adapt to this Ministry more effectively than Leadsom, then the contest is all but over. The issue of timing is more complex. If the Party goes for a September or Conference election process, they will then be faced with the issue of when to go to the country to attempt to gain a proper mandate. The obvious time would be October but the risk is that Brexit will still be unclear comprising a set of notes from the first lot of negotiation meetings. If they leave the internal contest till the Spring conference, they could then go to the country in May 2018, that would ensure that there is a clear set of Brexit proposals to put before the electorate, and so they can avoid a second referendum but claim the same sort of mandate. They can also use the second election to argue for another year for the completion of Article 50, and it will put them in a similar position to the one that Theresa May was aiming for when she called this election, except that by then they will have a fully formed manifesto and in effect they will have had nearly a year of negotiations behind them and nearly two ahead before we depart in the new period to May or June 2020. It will be much easier to argue that the Tories are the only ones capable of finishing Brexit by May next year and so some of the arguments that did not work last week, will have much more resonance amongst many voters.

Advertisements

About ianchisnall

I have a passion to see public policy made accessible everyone who want to improve the wellbeing of their communities. I am interested in issues related to crime and policing as well as in policies on health services and strategic planning.
This entry was posted in EU Referendum, Parliament and Democracy, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s